COVID-19 and Youth Suicide: Do the Numbers Match the Headlines?

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There's little doubt that the COVID-19 pandemic has been hard on many children and adolescents just as it has been difficult for adults. The disruption of routines, reduced contact with friends, concern over getting ill, and financial turmoil suffered by many families is exacting a toll on our mental health, as has been documented by a number of recent surveys and studies.^1,2

Quite understandably, concern about rising levels of anxiety and depression in youth prompts additional worries about suicide, the second leading cause of death in adolescents and young adults. In response, many organizations have rallied to provide additional resources to help prevent suicidal thinking and actions. Online mental health tips, support phone and text lines, and the availability of telemedicine have all been mobilized to help people cope and stay safe both physically and psychologically.

But what are the actual numbers when it comes to youth suicide during COVID-19? According to many headlines in the press, the statistics are grim and support many of distressing predictions that have been made. A December story in an Arizona newspaper, "With Teen Suicides on the Rise, Tucson Educators Struggle to Prioritize Mental Health," described a 67% increase in teen suicides in 2020 compared with 2019 in one county.³ Another post from Psychology Today, "America is Facing a Teen Suicide Pandemic," raised similar alarms.⁴ Concern over suicide has even been used politically to argue against restrictions that could reduce the spread of COVID-19 infections.

But despite this common perception shared by both health care professionals and the public, there actually is not evidence at this point that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a broad spike in youth suicide deaths or attempts. A recent study published in the journal Pediatrics compared suicide screening results on youth presenting to emergency departments for any reason in 2020 to the same month in 2019.⁵ The authors found no consistent increases in reported suicidal ideation or suicide attempts with scattered elevations found in some months during 2020 compared with the previous year (including February 2020 before the pandemic really began) but not others. Internationally, newly analyzed data from 2020 with regard to suicide deaths have suggested "either no rise in suicide rates ... or a fall in the early months of the pandemic." In my home and, admittedly small, state of Vermont, data from the Department of Health have shown 93 suicide deaths across all ages as of mid-November 2020 compared with a 5-year average of 96.

Why don't the data match the headlines? There are a number of possibilities.

1. Suicide rates in youth were going up before the pandemic. As it takes time to verify and analyze data from large populations, many of the reports on suicide that have been published and released in 2020 summarize data from prior years. Without looking closely, a news organization can easily slap on a headline that implies that the data were obtained during the pandemic.

2. Fluctuations tend to occur from year to year. Thankfully, youth suicide remains rare (although not rare enough). With small numbers, regular variations from year to year can look huge in terms of percentages, especially if one doesn't pull back and look at longer trends over time.

3. People are reaching out for mental health services. The public health message to access support and treatment for COVID 19–related mental health struggles appears to be having an effect, but this increased demand should not necessarily be viewed as a proxy for suicidal ideation and attempts.

While the understanding that we are not actually in the midst of a surge in COVID 19–related youth suicide is reassuring, it is important not to get complacent. Much of the data remains preliminary, and, even if these numbers hold up, there is no guarantee that things will continue this way, especially if the pandemic and it restrictions continue to drag on for many more months. And of course, whether or not the pandemic is making things significantly worse, youth suicide remains an enormous public health imperative with every one being a human tragedy.

It is also quite possible that more detailed analyses will eventually reveal a more complex association between youth suicide and COVID-19, with effects of the pandemic being realized regionally or more for some groups than others. Data from before the pandemic indicated, for example, that suicide rates are increasing more rapidly among African American youth compared with white children and adolescents.⁶ With the COVID-19 pandemic itself affecting disadvantaged communities more strongly, one could readily expect variable impacts in mental health related to race or socioeconomic status. A recent article voices these concerns for indigenous youth in Montana: a state with one of the highest per capita suicide rates in the country.⁷ The article notes, however, that the rate of suicide overall in Montana in 2020 is comparable to those of previous years.

Overall, pediatricians should not be needlessly panicked that the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked a surge in youth suicide. The data at this point simply don't support that assertion despite many headlines to the contrary. At the same time, many children and adolescents are certainly struggling with the stresses the pandemic has created and continue to need our close monitoring and support.

Rettew is a child and adolescent psychiatrist and associate professor of psychiatry and pediatrics at the University of Vermont Larner College of Medicine. Follow him on Twitter @PediPsych. His new book, "Parenting Made Complicated: What Science Really Knows About the Greatest Debates of Early Childhood," launches Feb. 1, 2021.

References

1. Copeland WE et al. Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on college student mental health and wellness. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2020;60(1):134-41. doi: 10.1016/j.jaac.2020.08.466.

2. Qiu J et al. A nationwide survey of psychological distress among Chinese people in the COVID-19 epidemic: Implications and policy recommendations. Gen Psychiatry. 2020;33:e100213. doi: 10.1136/gpsych-2020-100213.

3. Dhmara K. With teen suicides on the rise, Tucson educators struggle to prioritize mental health. Tuscon.com. Dec. 27, 2020.

4. Chafouleas, SM.

america-is-facing-teen-suicide-pandemic">America is facing a suicide epidemic

: New data confirm the urgency of confronting it now. Psychology Today blog. Sept. 4, 2020.

5. Hill RM et al. Suicide ideation and attempts in a pediatric emergency department before and after COVID-19. Pediatrics. 2020. doi: 10.1542/peds.2020-029280.

6. John A et al. Trends in suicide during the covid-19 pandemic. BMJ 2020;371:m4352. doi: 10.1136/bmj.m4352.

7. Reardon S. Health officials fear COVID-19 pandemic-related suicide spike among indigenous youth. Time Magazine. December 2020.

This article originally appeared on MDedge.com, part of the Medscape Professional Network.

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Cite this: COVID-19 and Youth Suicide: Do the Numbers Match the Headlines? - Medscape - Jan 12, 2021.